Posted by
PoliCzar on Wednesday, September 27, 2006 9:21:57 PM
Now that
alot of the classified NIE report on terrorism has been released, as opposed to
leaked, Republicans and Democrats are scrambling to explain what it all
means. When the original section was leaked by the media, Democrats
jumped on it to use it for political gain. They argue that the document
proved that the Iraq
war was not diminishing terror threat. As we read now through the rest of
the document, or at least the amount that has been released, we see that that
concept is not entirely true. The problem with this document is that it
isn't gospel. It actually takes a very broad view on the terrorist threat
in the world. We must remember that this is a global war, not a regional
war. We also must remember, as I mentioned in another article, that Iraq and Afghanistan are two theaters in the
global war on terror. The document spells out similar notions as well as
a few vague contradictions. The main issue I have with this document is
that when it is 'cherry-picked' as one commentator said, it can be used by
either side. Here is a breakdown of some of the report and the truth
behind it in my opinion.
**Four
underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1)
Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western
domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2)
the Iraq jihad; (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and
political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-United
States sentiment among most Muslims - all of which jihadists exploit.
1) Note the
overuse of jihadist movement. One must understand that the jihadist
movement only represents a very small percentage of Muslims in the entire
world. The grievances they carry are those placed on them by the imperial
regimes which govern them. Thus democracy and a more free society would
potentially rid them of these.
2) Again
democracy, all be it a very slow process, prevails in the end. Our nation
was not built in a year or even 5. We must find those Muslim nations that
can change from within, without force, so that we do not sink as low as the
radical ideology that many radical Muslims follow - conversion by force.
3) The slow
pace is brought on due to already established jihadists groups. This is a
catch 22.
4) The
anti-US sentiment has been brought on in part by the Iraq war, but you must remember
this sentiment has been around for well over 30 years. Recall the bombing
of the US barracks in Lebanon.
**Concomitant
vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed
and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include
dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal
of the jihadists radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of
moderation and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim
citizens.
**The
jihadists’ greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution -
an ultraconservative interpretation of Shariah-based governance spanning the
Muslim world - is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the
religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists’
propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.
Correct) A
perfect example of how vulnerable the movement is when presented with a
majority of Muslims who outweigh the jihadists beliefs.
**Recent
condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few
notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a
constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism.
This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader
Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to
capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream
emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.
Correct
again) Please note the concept here that this is the most powerful weapon
in the war on terror. I noted above about this movement being in the
minority. Although when you have a religion with 1 billion followers
world wide, even 5-10% is still a huge group. Muslim leaders have been
silent in their efforts to dismantle the radical clerics, thus the movement
persists.
**Countering
the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral
efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.
Really?)
This passage is perfect for anyone who can’t understand the rest of the
document. Yes, the whole thing isn't an easy read. Many big words
in there. Not to sound too shrewd, but I think many Democrats and members
of certain news media outlets elected to read and discuss the easier passages
to understand. I am not kidding.
**If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the
next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between
intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to
achieve their local objectives.
Yes)
Please note the world PROBABLY in there. As I mentioned above, this
document is not gospel. It is not a plan, it is a report, a mission
statement with many too many angles if you will.
**Nonetheless,
attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new
opportunities for jihadists to exploit. Al-Qaida, now merged with Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and
donors and to maintain its leadership role.
Uh
oh) This one the dems will jump all over. Should they? Maybe,
depends on if they read the rest of the document. This is a possibility
but it is not a proven fact. So one must take this concept with a grain
of salt and be prepared for it.
**The loss
of key leaders, particularly Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahri, and al-Zarqawi,
in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller
groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the
mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and
disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for
a time, pose a less serious threat to United States interests than does
al-Qaida.
Perhaps)
Cutting off the head will hinder their cause, will it destroy the whole
movement, probably not. It would be a huge morale boost to the world if
we were able to destroy the heads of the leading terrorist groups, and yes it
would cut off many of the financial and provisional outlets that they carry
with them. But it is not only Bin Laden, it is the leaders of radical
nations, such as Iran, that must be dealt with as well for its funding of
radical terrorist groups.
**Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against
Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global
threat.
Remember) -
This report was written in April, we all know about Zarqawi's fate.
**The
increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qaida in Iraq might lead
veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other
affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al
Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to
expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty
attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.
They
might) Note the word MIGHT. Many have forgotten about the North
African movement. I believe the entire US
government has, we must remember this is a global war, North
Africa is yet another theater where allies must work together to
win.
** We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does
al-Qaida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to United States
interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between
local regime targets and regional or global ones.
Assessment)
The rest of the document deals with homeland threats and ways terrorists will
attempt to attack not only us, but other countries allied in this war.
As you can
see this document does provide some information, but it does not tell us much
we do not already know. So using it for political gain was simply
impractical and darn right foolish in my opinion. If anything, this
document, again, reminds us of the threats we face all over the world and how
broad this war really is. Once our politicians, other world leaders, and
even the old U.N. realize the potential gravity of this situation, then we may
see a more belligerent stance. It may take more terrorist attacks in
other countries as well as in the US, unfortunately, for them to
understand. But when we elect our officials this November and forever,
let’s be sure those we do elect are ready to avoid any more attacks by striking
down terror where it lives.